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UnRiskIT® - Risk Management & Monte Carlo Cost & Time Estimator

UnRiskIT® es un programa innovador avanzado de vanguardia que proporciona soluciones para el análisis de riesgo del proyecto de pozo. Ofrece a los ingenieros de pozo una herramienta confiable para el análisis de riesgos y proporciona un valioso entendimiento para tomar decisiones con confianza y evitar peligros potenciales, resultando en un desempeño operacional y financiero óptimo. Esta tecnología innovadora realiza rápidamente el análisis de riesgos introduciendo y modificando la data del proyecto en una forma fácil de utilizar y de interface directa. Los métodos, procedimientos y características de UnRiskIT permiten al usuario obtener control y mantener consistencia a través de múltiples proyectos.

Traditional risk analysis methods of retrofitted spreadsheets and software add-on tools are cumbersome, inaccurate and inefficient resulting in poor decisions and wasted time. Furthermore, these traditional methods are generic and often require costly experts for probabilistic model development and interpretation. Customized for Well Engineering professionals, UnRiskIT® is a powerful software solution for quickly and properly generating critical information needed for effective risk mitigation.

 UnRiskIT® enables the user to thoroughly analyse and better manage risk, deliver more accurate cost estimates, reduce NPT, and avoid costly drilling problems. UnRiskIT® enlightens senior managers by providing quick and clear insight into the statistical parameters that compiled each risked cost / time estimate. Conclusively, it transforms well engineering operations from risk-vulnerable to risk-empowered. For more information on UnriskIT please contact Red Stone Drilling on unriskit@redstonedrilling.com

UnRiskIT - Frequently Asked Questions.

What is Risk?
Risk is a concept that denotes a potential negative impact to some characteristic of value that may arise from a future event, or we can say that "Risks are events or conditions that may occur, and whose occurrence, if it does take place, has a harmful or negative effect". Exposure to the consequences of uncertainty constitutes a risk. In everyday usage, risk is often used synonymously with the probability of a known loss.
"Risk communication and risk perception are essential factors for all human decision making".
Source: www.wikepedia.org

What is Risk Management?
Risk management: covers all the processes involved in identifying, assessing and judging risks, assigning ownership, taking actions to mitigate or anticipate them, and monitoring and reviewing progress. 

What is a Risk Management Plan?
A plan that imposes management tools to reduce the risks to an acceptable level. A Risk Management Plan is a document prepared by a project manager to foresee risks, to estimate the effectiveness, and to create response plans to mitigate them. It also consists of the risk assessment matrix.

What are the typical outputs of UnRiskIT?
Typical outputs of UnRiskIT are:

  • A variety of Reports:

  •      - AFE Detailed Report
         - AFE Summary Report
         - Risk Management Report
         - WellView Activity Export Report

    • A variety of graphs and charts:

    •      - Drilling Cycle Cost Chart
           - Frequency Charts (or ‘Bell’ curves) Cost, Time and Risk
           - Drilling Depth Chart
           - Depth versus Cost Chart
           - Tornado Charts (Risk, Cost)
           - Total Risk Chart
      All of the reports can be exported to MS Office Excel. All of the graphs can be copied in any MS Office application such as MS Word, MS Excel or MS Powerpoint.

      How does UnRiskIT address the Central Limit Theorem?
      The central limit theorem (CLT) states that the sum of a large number of independent and identically-distributed random variables will be approximately normally distributed (i.e., following a Gaussian distribution, or bell-shaped curve) if the random variables have a finite variance.

      Simply put, if you have a large number of variables in a Monte Carlo simulation then you will experience a narrowing of the overall outcome as the number of variables increase. And the range of outcomes might not be acceptable/reasonable to you.

      To address this issue we can make some intelligent correlations between variables, making them dependent in some manner. You may logically ascertain that as time increases with a particular activity then the trouble associated with that activity may increase as well. UnRiskIT® provides for a logical and transparent means to define these correlations which results in a more realistic range of possible outcomes.


     
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